When you have a team that wins its first five games and then loses four of its next six, it’s very easy to use words like unpredictable and suggest there is no way of knowing what Watford’s season is going to deliver.
However, with less than a dozen games gone there is, to my mind, a pattern emerging.
For the next few months at least, until the club have the chance to make any squad alterations, what we’ve seen is very much what we are likely to continue to see.
Very good some weeks, less so others. Very capable of ripping teams apart and banging in a few goals, but also likely to find ourselves on the wrong end of a beating or two.
This is a Watford squad that is still lop-sided and has some gaps in it: a midfielder who is more defensive than attack-minded would be a start for the recruitment team to be working on.
It’s a group of players that can excite. They can get you on your feet at the speed, dynamism and skill of what they do.
But that same group can also leave you scratching and holding your head on occasions, wondering if what you saw only a few days earlier actually happened.
For my money, they look capable of being well above average in this season’s Championship.
Whether they actually can be so will depend on each individual performance, because quite clearly we’re unlikely to get a string of outings where we see similar displays.
And that goes for each individual player as well as the team collectively. Some players who shone in a pleasantly surprising evening at the Etihad last week then chucked in a 3/10 or a 4/10 at Preston.
It’s going to be a challenge for a young head coach like Tom Cleverley.
He’s not just trying to keep a car on the road while making changes under the bonnet, he’s also never going to be quite sure if the vehicle is going to suddenly apply the handbrake or slip into reverse without warning.
That was the case at Deepdale. Only a few days after beating the team that now sits atop the Championship table, Watford succumbed to defeat against a Preston side that was on a run of four games without a win and had scored only one league goal at home.
Injuries to Tom Dele-Bashiru and Daniel Jebbison meant a bit of a personnel shuffle, and those who felt Kwadwo Baah had done enough to be played from the start got their wish.
However, he was deployed in the No.9 role, something he had played in pre-season to reasonably good effect – but he’s looked far more threatening as a No.10 or on the wing.
His evening could have been very different had he taken the gilt-edged chance that came his way early on.
Instead, he sent his shot against the advancing Freddie Woodman when set free in the box, and what could have been a hefty blow for the home side to absorb wasn’t delivered, and a boost for the Hornets on their travels went with it.
Dele-Bashiru’s absence meant a first league start of the season for Imran Louza, but he simply didn’t take the chance to seize the moment.
Instead, the game went on around him. He’s never been one for ball winning, but this season his ability to drift past opponents or pick a pass have also seemingly left him.
However, it would be unfair to lay the blame for this maladroit midweek mess on individuals.
It was, however, far easier to pick out the one or two who emerged with credit, and top of the list was Angelo Ogbonna.
He may be 36 and not quite the player he was in his pomp, but when you read a game as well as he does that matters little.
His brain gains him a yard or two, his use of his body to steer forwards where he wants them to go rather than where they’d like to head, and the way in which he guides those around him is obvious to see.
That the two goals Watford conceded after he had gone off saw Preston enjoying inexplicable amounts of space at the back of the box showed what can happen when Ogbonna’s not around.
The first 20 minutes or so were not too bad. Watford were on top, looked the more threatening and gave the home side little or nothing to feed off.
After the game, Cleverley bemoaned what he felt was his side ‘playing within themselves’, and you can see what he means.
Preston have not had a good start to the season, they’re finding their feet under Paul Heckingbottom and they clearly wanted to try and play their way into the game.
Yet having been the best side for 20 minutes, Watford appeared to ease off and as a result the home side saw more of the ball and were able to enjoy some good moments without having to do too much.
Nonetheless, on everything seen in the first 45 minutes, it was a game well within Watford’s gift to go on and win.
Instead, it was Preston who knuckled down, dug a bit deeper and pushed themselves.
Watford’s response to finding their opponents using more physicality, running harder and faster, was to resemble a slug when sprinkled with a little salt: they slowly curled up.
Once Preston had gone ahead, there was rarely a hint that the Hornets were going to see Preston’s increased verve, and raise them some.
That the home side’s first two goals were scored by a player who has pleaded guilty to a charge of biting an opponent made it even harder to swallow (pun intended).
Milutin Osmajic was spotted by TV cameras sinking his teeth into the shoulder of Blackburn defender Owen Beck in a game last month, and subsequently pleaded guilty to an FA charge of violent conduct.
Yet for some reason, there’s now a pause in proceedings while the FA decide what the punishment should be, and in the meantime he’s free to play.
Good news for Preston, bad news for Watford – though while it seems ridiculous that someone can admit a charge so serious and carry on playing, it’s unlikely Watford would have been any more likely to grit their own gnashers had he not been on the pitch.
His first goal was a neat front-post finish, his second a confident strike having been afforded so much space in the Watford box.
At 2-0, Watford needed a spark – and that should have come in the 72nd minute.
Vakoun Bayo, who had come on shortly after the first goal, was sent clear with only Woodman to beat.
His attempt to score had all the hallmarks of someone very much lacking in confidence – and perhaps a player also aware of some of the overly unpleasant comments made about him on social media.
Woodman wasn’t even forced into a save as Bayo sent his shot wide, a miss that became even more painful when the home side scored a third within a minute.
Cleverley didn’t say much about the miss, other than to point out it wasn’t the reason his side lost.
He also said that Watford have, so far this season, looked a better team when Bayo is playing. I agree with him on that too, as his hard work, chasing and link-up play gets overlooked.
Sadly, though, that is largely his own fault as it’s his profligacy in front of goal and failure to do so much better with chances that you’d expect a forward to take which leave him exposed to criticism.
He is not, as some suggest, the worst striker the club have ever had. He’s not even the worst in recent memory.
But goals are generally what forward players are judged upon, and while you can forgive strikers for bumping into a goalie having a worldie or being denied by the woodwork, his miss at Preston and the dreadful lob at Sheffield United were simply an attacking version of a keeper letting one go through his legs.
It's hard to believe that Bayo and Louza sit third and first on the list of transfer fees Watford have paid since the start of the 21/22 season - and it's probably stats like that which mean they come under the microscope of the fans more than others.
Individual shortcomings were not responsible for the defeat though – this was a collective collapse, and hopefully Cleverley can use the next couple of days to apply boots to the derriere while using the game on Saturday as the ideal focus of attention.
Watford are better than they showed at Preston. They have already displayed that. And they still sit eighth in the table, so 16 other teams are currently doing worse.
Nonetheless, while accepting that the Hornets look like being consistently inconsistent, it’s also right to demand better than the way they metaphorically threw their hand of cards in so early last night.
These players could, if they put their minds to it, hang around where they currently are in the Championship table and find themselves in and around the exciting stuff at the top end of the table.
But, as Cleverley rightly stated, against Preston they looked simply happy to fulfil a fixture and deliver a performance and result that smacked of mid-table mediocrity.
There’s still a long way to go, and so many points to play for.
The Watford players have to show they want to work as hard, battle as much and consequently play as well as it takes to be successful. It’s in their hands.
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