The local election results in Watford may appear unremarkable but a deeper dive suggests we could be seeing signs of a Conservative resurgence.

Candidates battled for a total of 13 seats at Watford Borough Council on May 6 – and although there are plenty of new faces, not one seat across Watford changed party.

The Liberal Democrats retained nine of the 13 seats and Labour kept four, leaving the political make-up of the council exactly as we were on Wednesday night.

Despite representing Watford in Parliament, the Conservatives have never controlled Watford Borough Council, and the party hasn’t had a councillor since 2016 – and still doesn’t.

But, following on what can only be described as a dismal Tory performance in the 2019 local elections, the 2021 election saw the Conservatives poll their highest number of votes since new ward boundaries were introduced in Watford in 2016.

The Conservatives received more than double the number of total votes this time round (7,312) than they did in 2019, and nearly 2,000 more than they achieved in the 2018 elections.

The latest set of results also saw the Tories overtake Labour in five Lib Dem wards, including Meriden, Woodside, and Stanborough.

Binita Mehta-Parmar, whose party polled behind the Lib Dems but ahead of Labour in Nascot ward. She is also chairman of the Watford Conservative party

Binita Mehta-Parmar, whose party polled behind the Lib Dems but ahead of Labour in Nascot ward. She is also chairman of the Watford Conservative party

While obviously disappointed not to have picked up any seats, a senior Watford Conservative has told us they are viewing their campaign as a "marathon" and not a "sprint", and the party is "fired up" for the next election.

What has prompted an upturn in Tory support in Watford is not clear. The party may have taken some votes off the Lib Dems and Labour, but it could also be that Tory voters felt compelled to vote this time round, with around 3,000 more votes cast altogether in 2021 compared to 2019.

Interestingly, despite the Tory surge in some wards, Labour recorded slightly more votes this year than they did in 2019 – 7,868, which is up from 7,151, and the party held onto all of its seats, including what they described as an "excellent victory" in a closely-fought battle with the Lib Dems for one Callowland seat.

Residents in this cross-party ward are among those most affected by some of the mass development that has been approved in Watford, such as the 28-storey tower on the Range site – but the ruling Lib Dems almost stole the seat from Labour.

The Liberal Democrats comfortably retained control of the council, despite three party resignations in the lead-up to May, complaints over them leafleting during a pandemic, and a bumper set of rookie candidates.

But although Elected Mayor Peter Taylor described the results as an "endorsement" of the Lib Dem record, the party polled around 1,400 fewer votes than it did in 2019 (12,103 in 2021).

See more: Full 2021 election results from Watford

Although there are host of issues residents base their votes on, the single biggest issue in Watford is the number of new flats being built - and the size of them.

The latest set of results suggest the Lib Dems haven’t lost the faith of the electorate but it is interesting to note the two parties with the biggest vote swings are the parties who are regularly at loggerheads over development.

Mr Taylor has consistently blamed the level of development in Watford on "unrealistic" housing targets being set by the Government.

The town’s Conservative MP Dean Russell says the national Lib Dem policy is also to build new homes and pointed out that it is Watford Borough Council that it is in charge of signing off new development in Watford – and not the Government.

It’s not that simple – with a presumption in favour of development coming from the Government, the council is vulnerable to appeals by developers if it turns down developments, and risks having to pay the developer's costs if it lost and was seen to have acted "unreasonably" in refusing the application.

Watford Conservative MP Dean Russell, left, Watford Liberal Democrat mayor Peter Taylor, right.

Watford Conservative MP Dean Russell, left, Watford Liberal Democrat mayor Peter Taylor, right.

Whether any of the above on development is relevant to how the votes panned out this year is unknown but it certainly paints an interesting picture of the direction the town may be heading for upcoming local and general elections.

However with the Lib Dems seemingly so popular at a local level but rarely troubling the Tories or Labour when it comes to a general election, there’s little point predicting where the political future lies for the ever-perplexing Watford constituency.